Rampant speculation today on the web that Microsoft is about to announce a Web-based Office suite.

Speaking as someone who spent four years developing word processors I can say with some authority that it will be many many many years before Microsoft could ever hope to produce an Ajax-ed Web-browser based office product.

For one thing, Microsoft has MS Office and people will expect any new office product from Microsoft to do all the same stuff. Stuff that took Microsoft nearly 20 years to get into Office. People would expect this of any Office replacement, but they will especially expect it from Microsoft. It will take many years to build such a beast, no matter how many people you throw at it. Until everything is there, no one will be happy with it.

Then there is the issue of the current Office suite. Microsoft has invested a lot of money in this software. It makes up something like 40% of their current revenue. There is no way they will cannibalize that, so to do a hosted office they are going to have to do it some way that does not kill their current sales.

I think its more likely that Microsoft will announce their SharePoint server will be available hosted and maybe some other new tools. But for the most part Office will still be same old desktop-app Office that we know and love, though MS may move more and more parts into their “hosted” service overtime.